The Law of Large Round Numbers

Most people have a mobile phone and most mobile phones have an app which measures the number of steps completed, at least while the owner is carrying it. Medical research confirms the importance of regular exercise for maintaining health, but there is no consensus on how many footsteps constitute sufficient exercise, or how this figure may vary by age and sex. Most people, however, are undaunted by this lack of evidence and set 10,000 steps as their daily target. Why this number? It was devised as part of a marketing campaign in Japan, and was chosen because 10,000 is a large round number and large round numbers are impressive, easily-remembered and therefore persuasive. 

This demonstrates the Law of Large Round Numbers: that large round numbers are made-up, and are made up for a purpose. Politics is a wonderland for large round numbers, with objectives and achievements set out as arbitrary large round numbers, often with the minimum of justification. The most absurd recent example in the UK has been the promise by the new Reform UK Ltd administrations in various county councils to each identify £100 million in efficiency savings. This was part of Reform’s cosplay of Elon Musk’s short-lived DOGE initiative in the USA, which made indiscriminate cuts in essential public services as pretended ‘efficiency savings’. Where did Reform’s figure of £100 million come from? It was not based on any detailed scrutiny of expenditure and commitments or any examples of gross waste. Instead Reform just made it up because it looked impressive. Later on, when it became apparent that only lesser ‘savings’ could be made only by such ‘economies’ as cutting school transport for disabled children, the target for individual local authorities faded from view. Instead, Reform UK Ltd recycled the figure of £100 million/county as their equally-spurious claim for the total savings achieved by all ten Reform-run counties taken together. Large round numbers, however fictitious, have staying power. 

Reform’s dishonest efforts are but pale imitations of those made by their true leader over the water, Donald Trump. Having discovered rather late in the day that the BBC made a minor error in editing a tape of the speech he made to his supporters before they attacked the US Capitol Building in 2020, he threatened to sue the BBC for $1 billion unless they made an apology. A apology was made, but Trump responded by claiming $5 billion in damages. An apology, for Trump, is a sign of weakness and a reason for a more intensive bout of bullying. The latest large round number of $5 billion is of course ludicrous. Claims for damages are made for loss of income and/or reputation. It is difficult to see how Trump’s reputation could be any lower after numerous criminal convictions, allegations of rape by several women, a prolonged association with Geoffrey Epstein, and a long history of fraudulent business practices. Nor did he suffer electorally or financially, winning the 2024 election, followed by much enhanced opportunities for raking off public funds. But large round numbers have a life of their own, invented and believed, and Trump will continue to promote this claim for damages, no doubt supported by his Quisling supporters in Reform UK.