1. This is the second-most unpopular elected government since the beginning of universal suffrage. The Conservative Party won 331 seats in the House of Commons (51% of the 650 seats in the House) from only 36.8% of the vote. This is the second-lowest winning percentage since universal suffrage began at the General Election of 1929. Only Labour's 'victory' in 2005 with just over 35% of the vote is comparable. The other winner in 2015 from our grossly undemocratic election system was the SNP. This has 56 seats from only 4.7% of the vote. Compare that with UKIP, which won one seat from 12.6% of voters.
2. Scotland will have less influence in the UK than at any time since the Act of Union.
The claim by the SNP that they will give Scotland a voice at Westminster is a familiar combination of deceit and self-delusion. Scots have played an important part in all UK governments since the Act of Union. This rose to a peak in the most recent Labour Government, in which Scotsmen were, at various times, Prime Minister, Chancellor the Exchequer, Defence Secretary, Lord Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, and Secretary of State for Health. However, membership of a senior post in government, with few exceptions, requires membership of the House of Commons. Since the SNP has all but three of the Members of Parliament who represent Scotland, this will effectively eliminate the Scots from both Government and Opposition front benches.
3. Rupert Murdoch will be rewarded. One of the fascinating features of the election campaign was the co-ordinated campaign by the Conservatives and the SNP to build up the SNP threat to the Labour Party. Each time David Cameron claimed that a minority Labour government would be controlled by the SNP, an SNP leader would state a new demand they would make of such a government. Both the Conservatives and the SNP received the enthusiastic support of, respectively, the English and Scottish editions of The Sun on the instructions of its American owner Rupert Murdoch. Both parties have invested a big efforts in wooing this evil old man, and he will expect a reward for his support. This will probably be approval for a takeover bid for Sky and the breakup of the BBC.
4. The Labour Party has popular policies but failed politically. The various policies announced by the Labour Party during the campaign (such as ending the tax-avoidance status of non-domiciles, controlling rents, restricting the use of zero-hours contracts and preventing further privatisation of the NHS) all proved to have majority support in the public opinion polls. But the Labour leadership failed to promote these policies over the lifetime of the preceding Parliament, and they therefore had limited impact at the election. Most important of all, the Labour Party failed to effectively challenge the claim that it had ‘bankrupted’ the UK economy by massively increasing the National Debt. The increase in this debt was a result of having to borrow money to avoid the bankruptcy of three of the world’s largest banks, as well as various building societies and smaller banks in 2008. None of the political parties had anticipated the recklessness of the management of so many financial institutions, and all would have acted in the same way as Gordon Brown’s Labour Government to protect the savings of British citizens. But the impression was given of panic and incompetence, rather like Black Wednesday in 1992, when the Conservative Government was forced to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Labour failed to defend its actions in 2008, and has failed to do so since. This is a primary political failure, in the sense of being unable to make a case and persuade people to accept it.
5. In two years time, the Conservative Party will fall apart. A referendum will be held on membership of the European Union in 2017 after a supposed renegotiation of the terms of British membership. The Government has never stated what changes it aims to achieve, and any significant changes would in any case require the revision of the various inter-governmental treaties that determine the structure and functioning of the EU. Treaty-revision requires unanimous consent of all the countries in the EU, which is unlikely to be forthcoming since new treaties in some countries require formal constitutional change and/or a referendum . We can therefore assume that any renegotiation will be mainly cosmetic and unlikely to appease the majority of the Conservative Party which opposes membership of the Union. The following 2017 referendum campaign will in consequence involve rival sets of Conservative political leaders on opposite sides bitterly denouncing each other. This will be interesting to observe.
2. Scotland will have less influence in the UK than at any time since the Act of Union.
The claim by the SNP that they will give Scotland a voice at Westminster is a familiar combination of deceit and self-delusion. Scots have played an important part in all UK governments since the Act of Union. This rose to a peak in the most recent Labour Government, in which Scotsmen were, at various times, Prime Minister, Chancellor the Exchequer, Defence Secretary, Lord Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, and Secretary of State for Health. However, membership of a senior post in government, with few exceptions, requires membership of the House of Commons. Since the SNP has all but three of the Members of Parliament who represent Scotland, this will effectively eliminate the Scots from both Government and Opposition front benches.
3. Rupert Murdoch will be rewarded. One of the fascinating features of the election campaign was the co-ordinated campaign by the Conservatives and the SNP to build up the SNP threat to the Labour Party. Each time David Cameron claimed that a minority Labour government would be controlled by the SNP, an SNP leader would state a new demand they would make of such a government. Both the Conservatives and the SNP received the enthusiastic support of, respectively, the English and Scottish editions of The Sun on the instructions of its American owner Rupert Murdoch. Both parties have invested a big efforts in wooing this evil old man, and he will expect a reward for his support. This will probably be approval for a takeover bid for Sky and the breakup of the BBC.
4. The Labour Party has popular policies but failed politically. The various policies announced by the Labour Party during the campaign (such as ending the tax-avoidance status of non-domiciles, controlling rents, restricting the use of zero-hours contracts and preventing further privatisation of the NHS) all proved to have majority support in the public opinion polls. But the Labour leadership failed to promote these policies over the lifetime of the preceding Parliament, and they therefore had limited impact at the election. Most important of all, the Labour Party failed to effectively challenge the claim that it had ‘bankrupted’ the UK economy by massively increasing the National Debt. The increase in this debt was a result of having to borrow money to avoid the bankruptcy of three of the world’s largest banks, as well as various building societies and smaller banks in 2008. None of the political parties had anticipated the recklessness of the management of so many financial institutions, and all would have acted in the same way as Gordon Brown’s Labour Government to protect the savings of British citizens. But the impression was given of panic and incompetence, rather like Black Wednesday in 1992, when the Conservative Government was forced to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Labour failed to defend its actions in 2008, and has failed to do so since. This is a primary political failure, in the sense of being unable to make a case and persuade people to accept it.
5. In two years time, the Conservative Party will fall apart. A referendum will be held on membership of the European Union in 2017 after a supposed renegotiation of the terms of British membership. The Government has never stated what changes it aims to achieve, and any significant changes would in any case require the revision of the various inter-governmental treaties that determine the structure and functioning of the EU. Treaty-revision requires unanimous consent of all the countries in the EU, which is unlikely to be forthcoming since new treaties in some countries require formal constitutional change and/or a referendum . We can therefore assume that any renegotiation will be mainly cosmetic and unlikely to appease the majority of the Conservative Party which opposes membership of the Union. The following 2017 referendum campaign will in consequence involve rival sets of Conservative political leaders on opposite sides bitterly denouncing each other. This will be interesting to observe.
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